IT:AD:Microsoft:Decline

First of all, I'm totally for Microsoft succeeding at having over 90% of the market and mind share.

It's just that…there's not a hope of it any more.

Actually, it's more nuanced than that: as long as there is a place for the NET/ Framework…I could live with whatever OS is there – as long as software can effectively be written for it.

In December 2011, I posted the following: http://skysigal.xact-solutions.com/Blog/tabid/427/entryid/2521/Default.aspx based on the following charts:

It unfortunately is coming to pass.

PC's are no longer the future – phones are – in both the consumer and enterprise space, and with its OS's on less than 5% of that market, they are quickly losing their relevance as a provider of OS's by 2015.

As software provider, they will continue.

Src: http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/get-used-to-it-mobile-is-taking-over-the-internet/

More: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24037713#.UVPqqvHPmtZ

Their market share will continue to erode for several reasons. Potential turn around with developer mindset could maybe be achieved if they redesign the UI of their OS services in a compelling and believable CUTE/ way, rather than try to fool everyone by slapping the two together poorly. But it's pretty late in the game at this point. Android seems poised to be the next dominant OS. Unfortunately.

Still, that is from a very small base. Jan Dawson, chief telecoms analyst at research firm Ovum, sums Windows Phone sales up this way, “Pretty unimpressive,” he says. “It illustrates that the best and most expensive marketing in the world can’t sell something that people don’t feel a need for.”

>The race for third place is a function of carriers wanting a third option, not consumers, Dawson says. “In some ways BlackBerry and Windows Phone are both trying to answer a question that no one has asked,” he says. “The carriers are really worried about a Google and Apple duopoly and what happens if they turn on them.”