Politics:Pacific

(UP)

Summary

The next nexus of war is probably the Pacific. The prelim testing of boundaries and alliances is being done at small scale in the islands.

“We are seeing levels of focus on the Pacific Islands that haven’t existed since the end of the Pacific War in 1945.”¹⁾

Was economic first, then military provisioning, now shifting to tying economic assistance to military assistance²⁾.

Objectives:
- Access to Resources.
- Military bases.
Background:
- Economics:
  - China's seas are depleted. Between these islands, they possess 19.9 million sq.kms of ocean water as Exclusive Economic ZOnes (EEZs).
  - Military:
  - Islands are natural, unsinkable, battleships that enable projecting power closer to other larger targets
  - Need forward restocking depots to project sea power sufficient to break through the 3 island barriers³⁾.
  * Stakeholders:
- NZ
- AU
- Cook Islands:
  - China has already paid the Rarotonga administration millions for pelagic tuna fisheries licences, and there is talk of Beijing funding the development of a deep-water port on Penrhyn Island ⁴⁾
  - “As well as the court house and police station, China has offered to fund a new stadium and a major sports event in 2009”⁵⁾
  - https://www.trevorloudon.com/2007/12/chinese-influence-in-the-cook-islands/ ⁶⁾
- Fiji
  - 2013: Major General Qian Lihua pledged military aid (“increased assistance with vehicles, uniform and stationary equipement”)
  - 2018: PLA donated a hydrographic and surveillance vesses to the navy.
  - 2000: 47 military vehicles
  - 2022: US putting back USAID & PeaceCorps ⁷⁾
    - Maybe cooling their relationship with China. Maybe…
- Kiribati
  - 2019: Dropped recognition of Taiwan in 2019 (4 days after Solomon islands) in exchange of planes and development funds ⁸⁾
  - China announced plans to revamp a strategic airstrip⁹⁾.
  - 2022: May rebuild the Tarawa Satellite tracking station.
  - Has major fishing rights.
  - 2022: pulled out of the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) ← danger is that no matter how unified the rest is, in the center is an island that provides them a place to project naval power from. This is an awful new development.
    - Remember…it's just under Hawaii…
- Nauru
- Niue
  - 2018: Niue signed a memorandum of understanding with China to join its belt-and-road initiative. China has offered nearly $15 million to pay for an upgraded 64km expressway around the island, and to renovate some wharfs.
  - “The Premier is certainly anti-New Zealand at the moment. We didn't raise the flag or sing the national anthem on 19 October” ¹⁰⁾.
- Papua New Guinea:
  - 2007: Renovation of Taurama Barrack hospital (500K)
  - 2017: donation of 62 vehicles (trop carriers, etc.) - ($5.3m)
  - Training of 83 officers in china ¹¹⁾
- Palau
- Samoa
  - Supposedly “Already under their control.” ¹²⁾
  - 2022: signed several agreements with China, including trade ¹³⁾
  - China has offered to back the construction of a huge port development in Vaiusu Bay ¹⁴⁾
  - “Samoa is one of the most heavily indebted countries in the world to China, owing the equivalent of 19.9 per cent of its gross domestic product to the country” ¹⁵⁾
- Solomon Islands
  - 2019: Droped recognition of Taiwan in exchange of planes and development funds
  - 2019: China Sam Enterprise Group’s plan to lease the island of Tulagi in Solomon Islands – later vetoed by the Solomon Islands government
    - 2022: signed security deal with China, allowing peacekeeping, stationing…ie projection from there. Huge…
    - Tonga
    - PLA donated 8 military trucks ($500K)
    - Supposedly “Already under their control.” ¹⁶⁾
    - But at same time, working with US ¹⁷⁾
    - Tuvala
    - Reasserted recognition of Taiwan, even after Solomon islands and Kiribati dropped recognition of taiwan.
    - Rebuffed China's offer to build artificial islands.
    - Vanuatu
    - China plans to build a military base in Vanuatu ¹⁸⁾.
      
      Do not be fooled by it being called something else than a military base: “[Djibouti] is China’s first overseas naval base, but Beijing describes it as a logistics facility.”¹⁹⁾
    - 2016: suppied 14 military vehicles.
    * Methods:
- Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is basis of establishing military bases in the region.
Map:
- https://asiatimes.com/2022/01/chinas-expanding-influence-in-the-pacific/

China has made the following inroads at setting up dependencies:

Evidence:
- INtentions:
  - 2015: Whitepaper to increase ²⁰⁾:
    - “developing all-round military-to-military relations”
    - “pushing ahead with pragmatic military cooperation”
    - “fulfilling international responsibilities and obligations”
  - 24 visits to Pacific islans between 2005 and 2019 (> once a year), 60% of them on PLA naval ships.
  - Medical visits via the “Peace Ark” to project image building…
    - 2019/2020: Increased naval floor mapping ²¹⁾