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Based on my experience of 10 elections over 40 years

Trump will win.

Mostly due to FL, then TX and finally PA.

Damn.

2020/11/04 06:49 · skys

Assuming Biden wins:

  • China tightens control over 9-dash
  • GB, NZ talk about providing secondary citizenship to HK but don't do anything.
  • While US distracted by Trump leaving noise and Biden is unprepared for his new role, China invades Taiwan. Taiwan fights back but can't win. Biden/US frets, GB frets, NZ frets - but all do nothing.
  • Russia's annexation of Crimea is not finished, having been waylaid to help Syria. But don't see any movement here, as it's good enough for now.
  • Enboldened by the non-action of US/GB/NZ Turkey maybe goes after Kastellorizo to get their hands on the undersea wealth.
    1. But will be fruitless, expending yet more Turkish treasury for no success.
    2. France will help the Greeks regarding Kastellorizo.
    3. Embedding France more deeply into Cyprus.
    4. Not sure what political gain Turkey would get out of it, bar finally putting a pin into the idea of joining the EU.
  • Don't see a move on Cyprus by Turkey being on the cards now as it would open two fronts at once.
    1. But it would be a great gift to Russia if Turkey were that stupid: 'helping' Syria get Cyprus would be a god-send to their ongoing search for a well established naval presence in the Mediterranean that France can't effectively contest.
  • I still wonder if Russia will ever pincer Turkey from the north and south via Cyprus to get access to the Mediterranean – but I'm not sure it's worth the long-term occupation hassle any decade soon. An island would be so much more easy to conquer and hold. Cyprus looks so appetizing that way, so I bet Russia hopes Turkey would go after Cyprus, and they can come to the defense of the Syrians… But it all depends on whether they get there before the French beef up to deal with Kastellorizo.
  • The main issue I'm keeping an eye on is the 9 dash lane, the Philippines, NZ.
  • You do realise that when NZ told the US to take their nuclear ships and stuff it, we blew up our mutual assistance treaties. There's not much to stop anybody being more assertive with us as to which way we have to vote.
  • Africa, can't even begin to predict. It's growing fast, getting comparable in tech, heavily invested in by (and in debt to) China…. Dunno.
  • I'll keep on hoping NZ will unwind from needing the RPC so much in terms of education and tourism. Not healthy being so reliant on a toothless aunt (GB), a mad unreliable non-sober in-debt distant but noisy cousin (US), or prize fighter neighbour (PRC), or tough older brother incestuously married into the family of the mad cousin (AU).
  • So where is there left to deal with? Maybe India. Distant, not trying to invade its neighbours, although poor it is populous and rising.
  • Then again, why would they buy things from here? They don't eat cows (althoug milk they do), don't need wool really (too hot) and anything else we have is pretty bog standard (goats, lamb, pine is available just about anywhere). Manuka is a bit of a well promoted crock. Kiwis same – plus New Zealand is losing control of the crop to china ripoffs (what goes around…). Don't produce illicit drugs of any significant quality or quantity (Cocaine is hard to grow here, Pot, meh, and don't have the chemical factories needed to produce a foundation for designer drugs). On the design side of things, although we try, we're no Swedes. I do see niche technology being possible for us. Coding is cheap to export. And robotics for farming grapes, cleaning coastlines just might be a big enough niche to get good enough to export. We used to be good at radio, but that's a bit over, and don't see us inventing 6G anytime soon.

So. If there is only one wish for the new president? Hope the US has the backbone to stand with Taiwan (it won't), hope GB and NZ stand with HK people (wonder about that), and the world comes together to unwind the 9-dash lanes and the sand island so it doesn't start a chain reaction.

2020/10/30 23:12 · skys

Hard to believe some wants to replace Obamacare with IDontCare.

2020/10/01 01:09 · skys

Has her phone out, striking a pose…

2020/09/22 03:51 · skys

It's social “Me!Me!Me!”dia…

2020/09/01 03:02 · skys

House Building

My expectations of myself this coming year:

  • Actively Contribute to
    1. communicating and re-establishing an understanding of the purpose of curricula, which is to
      1. developing the character and skills of the countries individuals to become:
        1. individual in creativity
        2. collaborative in effort
        3. collective in sense of justice
      2. in order to achieving well-being by
        1. valueless to valued (characterwise).
        2. self-esteeming themselves first,
        3. while gaining social esteem but relying on it only as a check-sum of their own self-assessment,
        4. progressing at their achievable pace along the continuum of:
          1. selfish to selfless,
          2. unskilled to skilled,
          3. helpless to helpful
    2. to collectively improve the socioeconomic valuation of the country, which at its essence is the balance of its creativity versus its consumption of resources.

Thoughts?

2020/11/03 22:46 · skys

2020/03/16 12:04 · skys

Dry .NET Blog

A blog about the latest code fragment that titillate me…

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